In the third quarter of 2025, Dubai’s residential property market continued its consistent upward trajectory. A steady pace of new project launches and sustained investor interest are in line with the emirate’s growing population.
According to the latest data, more than 10,000 new residential units were launched between July and September — a figure that reflects developers’ balanced approach to expansion and strengthens confidence in the market’s long-term outlook.
Over 97% of new launches were in the apartment segment, highlighting a structural shift toward high-density, well-integrated residential communities that offer rich infrastructure and affordable pricing. Meanwhile, the share of new villas and townhouses remains limited, helping sustain prices in the premium segment and increasing the value of low-density properties.
Apartments and Villas: Changing Focus and Premium Demand
Although apartments dominate new supply, demand for luxury villas remains strong. A prime example is the successful second phase of Jumeirah Golf Estates, where attractive payment plans and an emphasis on exclusive living continue to drive buyer interest.
Around 8,500 new units were completed in Q3, bringing the total for 2025 close to 30,000 homes — roughly equal to the total completions for all of 2024. Another 10,000 units are expected by year’s end. Notable completions this quarter include Ellington House in Dubai Hills Estate, Palace Residences in Dubai Creek Harbour, and Viridian in the Al Wasl district.
According to Savills, more than 250,000 new homes are expected to be delivered in Dubai by 2028, forming part of the market’s “dynamic evolution,” where supply-demand balance will increasingly depend on changing lifestyles and demographic shifts.
Population Growth and Capital Inflows: The Market’s Core Drivers
One of the key factors fueling the market is rapid population growth. As of September 2025, Dubai’s population surpassed 4 million, with projections indicating it could reach 5 million by 2030. This growth is supported by expansion across aviation, tourism, logistics, finance, and technology — sectors that create jobs and attract skilled professionals from around the world.
The market is also boosted by a strong influx of high-net-worth individuals. In 2025, nearly 10,000 millionaires are expected to relocate to the UAE, making it the global leader in attracting wealthy residents. According to Savills, Dubai remains the world’s most attractive city for private capital growth, thanks to its lifestyle quality, tax advantages, Golden Visa program, and ongoing legal reforms.
The Luxury Segment: A Return to Balanced Growth
After record-breaking activity in Q2, Dubai’s prime residential market returned to a more balanced pace in Q3 2025. About 1,500 transactions exceeding AED 10 million were recorded, including roughly 500 off-plan sales. Notably, 73% of these high-end transactions involved villas, reaffirming their dominance in the luxury category.
Average prices per square meter for both apartments and villas reached new highs. However, since early 2022, the average apartment price has remained relatively stable at around AED 1.9 million, reflecting smaller average unit sizes in new developments. Meanwhile, the average home price exceeded AED 7 million in Q3, a 24% increase compared to the 2024 average.
Market Outlook: From Cyclical Fluctuations to Sustainable Growth
Despite potential challenges from global geopolitical and financial volatility, the outlook for Dubai’s residential market remains positive. Its advanced infrastructure, political stability, investor-friendly regulations, and high standard of living continue to attract both investors and end users.
Experts note that the market is entering a new phase — one defined by structural, rather than speculative demand. With diversified supply, active construction, and a growing base of homeowners, Dubai is solidifying its position as one of the most resilient and forward-looking real estate markets in the world.