Sales of residential properties priced above $10 million in Dubai rose by 54% year-on-year in the third quarter. These figures confirm that prices in the emirate’s luxury real estate segment are set to continue rising next year, despite an overall slowdown in market momentum. In its quarterly report, consulting firm Knight Frank notes that prime residential prices are expected to increase by around 3%, supported by strong international demand from high-net-worth buyers, ongoing inflows of global capital, and a growing number of resident investors.
Dubai Leads the World in $10m+ Transactions
In the third quarter alone, 103 transactions involving properties priced above $10 million were recorded in Dubai—24% more than a year earlier. This once again made the emirate the most active market globally in this price segment. Analysts paid particular attention to 17 transactions exceeding $25 million, more than double the number recorded in the same period last year.
The total value of deals completed in the three months to the end of September exceeded $2 billion, also reflecting 54% growth. The average price of ultra-prime properties stood at around $19.4 million. The most expensive sale was a seven-bedroom villa in the Asora Bay project by developer Meraas in the La Mer area, sold for AED 350 million—approximately $95.3 million.
Why Luxury Property Remains a “Safe Haven”
Knight Frank experts emphasize that such sharp growth clearly demonstrates how rapidly prices are rising in the exclusive segment. Dubai has firmly established itself as a safe haven for both international and local luxury buyers. According to forecasts, the market for homes priced above $10 million could close another record year, following 435 transactions recorded in 2024.
Another major driver of demand is the inflow of wealthy migrants. According to a joint study by Henley & Partners and New World Wealth, the United Arab Emirates could attract a record 9,800 new millionaires in a single year, driven by the absence of income tax and improved regulation. In 2024, Dubai was home to around 20 billionaires and more than 81,200 millionaires, forming a strong foundation for demand in the luxury and ultra-prime segments.
The Wider Market: Growth Continues, but at a Different Pace
Overall, Dubai’s residential real estate market recorded a 2.5% increase in average prices in the third quarter, extending an uninterrupted series of quarterly rises that began at the end of 2020. On an annual basis, prices were up by around 10%. During the first nine months of the year, more than 148,000 transactions were completed with a total value exceeding AED 401.7 billion. In the third quarter alone, nearly 56,900 sales were recorded, worth AED 117 billion.
Analysts note that this high level of activity highlights Dubai’s growing appeal to both domestic and international investors. At the same time, the market is gradually entering a more mature phase. While average quarterly price growth was around 2% in 2021–2022 and exceeded 4% in 2023–2024, it has eased to approximately 3.2% this year.
Government Support and the Outlook Ahead
Government initiatives continue to support the real estate market. Extensions of the 10-year “golden visa”, residency programs for retirees and remote workers, and the diversification of the UAE economy all contribute to a steady inflow of capital. Over the summer, a new state-backed initiative was also launched to help UAE citizens and residents without freehold property gradually enter the housing market.
According to Knight Frank forecasts, despite the slowdown in growth, the overall trajectory remains positive. By the end of 2026, average price growth in the mass market segment is expected to hover around 1%, while luxury real estate is set to retain its status as one of the most resilient and attractive asset classes in the global market.